Market update – 29th May 2025.

Tentative signs of improvement have surfaced in China’s industrial sector. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that industrial profits rose 1.4% year-on-year between January and April, which is an improvement from the 0.8% growth recorded in the first quarter. This provides some confidence for traders that the recent stimulus measures put forward by Chinese policymakers are beginning to filter through the economy. Since September, the authorities have been gradually introducing initiatives aimed at boosting domestic demand and investor sentiment – with the latest announcement this month referring to planned cuts to their loan prime rates.

Markets were already breathing a sigh of relief after President Trump announced a pause on new tariffs targeting European imports. That optimism surged further on Wednesday when the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked all reciprocal tariffs that had been imposed by the President, ruling that he had exceeded his authority.

The Court also prohibited any further changes to the contested tariffs and gave the administration 10 days to remove what it called illegal duties – although most are currently suspended anyway.

This ruling is a serious blow to one of President Trump’s key economic policies that he has aggressively pursued for the last two months. The Trump administration responded almost immediately by filing an appeal, which sets the stage for a legal fight in higher courts. This will ultimately determine whether the President has the authority to act on trade policy without legislative backing.

Asian markets responded enthusiastically, with Japan’s Nikkei climbing 1.9% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 1.1%. UK and European markets are also set to open (unsurprisingly) in the green.

So, what comes next? For now, the White House must begin the process of dismantling the contested tariffs within the Court’s 10-day deadline – unless the appeal results in a stay. If the administration fails to comply, it could face additional legal pressure. The outcome of the appeal will determine how much power the U.S. Court of International Trade truly has over trade measures. The appeal sets up a potentially lengthy court battle, injecting further uncertainty into trade policy. In the meantime, companies affected by the tariffs are likely to rework supply chains and pricing strategies, while trade partners assess the new legal landscape. The uncertainty is far from over – but for now, markets are breathing a little easier.

Finally, the US consumer also showed signs of renewed optimism this month. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday its Consumer Confidence Index increased to 98 from 85.7 in April after 5 straight months of decline.

Still to come this week we have US PCE data and Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI.

Nicola Tune, Portfolio Specialist 

Links to websites external to those of Wealth at Work Limited (also referred to here as 'we', 'us', 'our' 'ours') will usually contain some content that is not written by us and over which we have no authority and which we do not endorse. Any hyperlinks or references to third party websites are provided for your convenience only. Therefore please be aware that we do not accept responsibility for the content of any third party site(s) except content that is specifically attributed to us or our employees and where we are the authors of such content. Further, we accept no responsibility for any malicious codes (or their consequences) of external sites. Nor do we endorse any organisation or publication to which we link and make no representations about them.