Market Update – 27th November 2024.

US markets will pause for the Thanksgiving holiday, with stocks and bonds closing tomorrow (Thursday, 28th) and limited trading on Friday. So far, it’s been a positive week for US markets, reflecting the traditional Thanksgiving-week optimism. Sentiment also received a lift from president-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary, a choice broadly welcomed by financial markets.

On Monday Trump announced plans via social media to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada through an Executive Order upon taking office in January. He also indicated an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, compounding concerns over potential disruptions to global trade.

This announcement dampened the positive market sentiment sparked earlier by the nomination of Scott Bessent as U.S. Treasury Secretary. While the dollar strengthened, global equities saw broad declines as investors weighed the impact of these protectionist policies. Despite no mention of European trade, European shares fell with the auto sector hit particularly hard with concerns that the bloc may share the same fate as the US’s largest trading partners and evoked concerns over re-stoking global inflation and weighing on monetary-policy easing. Despite these concerns it is important to remember that such policies often require negotiation and legislative processes, which could dilute or delay their implementation.

Investors found some relief on Monday following reports that Hezbollah, Israel, and Lebanon were nearing a ceasefire agreement. The prospect of a truce provided hope for de-escalation in a region fraught with geopolitical tensions, which have weighed heavily on market sentiment in recent weeks.

Economic data has been thin on the ground so far, although we did gain insight with the Fed meeting minutes released yesterday. They showed that policymakers are confident inflation is easing while the labour market remains strong. As a result, they noted that further interest rate cuts may be on the cards, albeit at a gradual pace.

Still to come this week, we have US PCE, durable goods orders and GDP estimates. Eurozone inflation and Chinese PMI due over the weekend.

Kate Mimnagh, Portfolio Economist

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